China's walnut exports doubled
Replacing the United States as the world's largest exporter!
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its "U.S. Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook" report, projecting average walnut yield per acre in the United States to increase 20% to 1.95 tons per acre in 2025, compared to 1.63 tons in 2024. This yield increase is expected to offset a 1.4% decrease in prime-fruiting area, leading to an 18% increase in total production of 710,000 tons, up from 603,000 tons in 2024. The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts a third consecutive year of decline in walnut-bearing area in 2025, from 370,000 acres in 2024 to 365,000 acres. The report states that recent trade data indicates that China's walnut exports will nearly double in the 2024/25 season, surpassing the United States as the world's largest walnut exporter.
However, Chinese walnut producers differ from their American counterparts in their export market orientation, as China lacks widespread cultivation of lighter-colored, less bitter varieties such as Chandler and Hartley. Although U.S. walnut yields have increased this year, rebounding to 710,000 tons, this is still significantly lower than the record 828,000 tons reached in the 2023/24 season, remaining at a 10-year low. U.S. walnut exports are projected to decline by approximately 20% in the 2024/25 season, with the unit price of walnut exports expected to increase by over 50% between September 2024 and July 2025.
According to German media outlet Mundus Agri, walnut prices in China are rising steadily. The fruit-bearing area in major producing areas such as Xinjiang, Hebei, Sichuan, and Yunnan remains roughly the same as last year. Most exporters have already begun purchasing new-season walnuts. Prices for Xinjiang's 185 variety in-shell walnuts are currently quoted at $2,000-2,100 per ton. With 2024 inventories largely depleted, current prices remain high. In-shell walnuts were shipped in September, and 185 variety Walnut Kernels will be available in late September or early October. The hybrid Xinfeng variety walnuts are already available, with kernel shipments starting in mid-September. The Xin 2 variety, however, will not be available until late September, with shipments delayed until late October. Yunnan walnut kernels are also expected to be available in late September. With inventory currently at zero,prices are expected to remain high. Buyers are advised to wait until supply increases before purchasing.