Chinese walnut exports to the EU surge 2.7 times!
US exports get off to a weak start.
According to German media outlet Mundus Agri, the US walnut production increased by 100,000 tons this new season, but low carryover stocks led to a weak start to the season, with exports falling by 32% in September. So far this year, China's walnut kernel exports to the EU have reached 24,135 tons, a surge of 269% year-on-year, capturing 20.7% of the EU market share. Meanwhile, US exports to the EU during the same period fell by 14.7% to 54,948 tons.
US walnut production increased by 100,000 tons, but exports faced pressure at the start of the year.
Due to favorable climate conditions for balanced fruit development across all growing regions, California's total walnut production in 2025 is projected to reach 644,101 tons, a 17.7% increase (approximately 100,000 tons)over the previous year. As growers in some areas require the fruit to reach optimal ripeness before harvesting, the California walnut harvest is expected to continue until early November. As of September 30, the 2025/26 season's registered stock of Shelled Walnuts was 95,517 tons, of which 93,717 tons were conventionally grown and 1,800 tons were organically grown.
Due to reduced production in the 2024/25 season, the new season started with almost zero carryover inventory. This is directly reflected in export performance: at the beginning of the season in September, US walnut exports were only 4,166 tons, far lower than the 6,117 tons in the same period last year (a decline of 31.9%); domestic shipments also decreased by 12.4% to 6,693 tons. Last September, total shipments of walnuts (including kernels and shells) from both domestic and international sources in the US were 10,859 tons, of which 10,489 tons were conventional walnuts and 370 tons were organic walnuts, representing a year-on-year decline of 21.1% this year.
US exports to Europe fell 19% to 2,638 tons at the start of the season. Exports to Italy bucked the trend, rising 35.9% to 1,394 tons, while exports to Germany (-96.8% to 19 tons) and the Netherlands (-87.5% to 19 tons) plummeted. Among other major markets, exports to Canada (-28% to 321 tons), Japan (-60% to 315 tons), and South Korea (-59% to 164 tons) also contracted significantly.
The EU's import landscape is changing.
So far this year, the EU has imported 116,493 tons of Walnut Kernels (up 12.1% year-on-year), valued at €720.092 million. In the same period last year, imports totaled 103,908 tons, valued at €455.207 million. The average import price this year reached €6.18 per kilogram, a surge of 41% compared to last year.
The United States accounted for 47% of the EU's walnut imports with 54,948 tons, but its exports fell by 14.7% year-on-year. China's walnut kernel exports to the EU reached 24,135 tons, a surge of 269% year-on-year, capturing 20.7% of the market share. Chile and Ukraine were also significant suppliers. Germany ranked first with 46,710 tons of imports (40% of the total), followed by Spain (up to 18,200 tons, +6.5%) and the Netherlands (down to 10,000 tons, -41.7%).