Global walnut output

The International Nuts and Dried Fruit Council (INC) has revised its global walnut production forecast. In May, the organization projected a 6% increase in global in-shell walnut production, but this has now been revised down to 4%. Changes in the Chinese market are one reason for the adjustment. According to the INC's latest forecast, global in-shell walnut production will increase by 4% compared to last year, while walnut kernel production is expected to increase by 8%, reaching 1.194 million tons. Total in-shell walnut supply for 2025/2026 is projected to increase by 2%, from 2.766 million tons in 2024/2025 to 2.825 million tons; total walnut kernel supply is also projected to increase by 2%, from 1.206 million tons to 1.233 million tons. Mixed Weather Conditions in China

Unfavorable weather conditions in northern and northwestern China prompted the INC to lower its production forecast for that country. Currently, China's in-shell walnut production is expected to decline by 3% compared to last year. Due to low inventory and high summer temperatures, harvesting began earlier in some areas. Shipments from Xinjiang production areas began in early September, and the local Walnut Kernels showed good color. CaliforniaWalnut Production Expected to Rebound Significantly

According to the California Walnut Council, U.S. production this season is expected to increase by 18%. This is attributed to ample reservoir replenishment, suitable early-growing temperatures, and ideal weather conditions during the spring and summer. However, three rainfalls in Fresno, Stockton, Lody, and Linden regions have caused some minor external quality issues. Shell stains have appeared, reducing production suitable for shell markets such as Turkey, Italy, Dubai, and India. While the rainfall affected the walnut shells, the quality of the kernels remained largely intact. Processors will sort the walnuts, sending stained walnuts to the kernel market while reserving those with intact shells for international buyers. Chilean Production Also Recovers

Favorable weather has also contributed to a rebound in Chilean production this year. Although there were some delays in shipments to India at the beginning of the export season, demand has improved significantly this season, with exports increasing significantly compared to last year. Orchard growth is in line with expectations for the 2026 season.