Key points of walnut production data in October 2025

In China, the walnut-bearing area in major producing areas such as Xinjiang, Hebei, Sichuan, and Yunnan remains roughly the same as last year. Many exporters have begun purchasing the new season's walnuts. Prices for Xinjiang's 185 variety in-shell walnuts range from $2,000 to $2,100 per ton. With 2024 inventories largely cleared, selling prices are relatively high. In-shell walnut shipments began in September, and 185 variety Walnut Kernels are expected to be available in late September or early October. The mixed Xinfeng walnut variety is already available, with kernel shipments starting in mid-September. However, the new "Xin Er" variety is not expected to be available until late September, with shipments commencing in the second half of October. Similarly, prices for Yunnan walnut kernels are expected to be announced in late September. With no inventory currently available, prices will be higher than current levels. TIANJIN BEAUTY FOOD recommends that buyers wait for the new crop to arrive in large quantities.

The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service recently released its "Tree Nuts Annual Report" for Ukraine, projecting walnut production of 100,500 tons for the 2025/2026 marketing year (beginning in September). This is slightly higher than the 98,640 tons estimated for the 2024/2025 marketing year. However, these figures are rough estimates, not official statistics, as Ukrainian walnuts are primarily grown by individuals and small family farms. Production is declining due to the lack of replanting of old trees on private land. These small producers are estimated to account for up to 80% of the walnut-bearing area. Commercial production is also shrinking due to a long-term lack of investment caused by Russia's hostile invasion, as farmers are turning to annual crops with faster returns. In international markets, Ukrainian exporters are increasingly struggling to compete with major global producers such as the United States, China, Chile, and Mexico. In the 2024/2025 marketing year, exports fell to a 15-year low due to quality issues caused by water shortages. However, quality should improve this marketing year, which will boost exports. Harvest will begin at the end of September and continue until the end of October.